Theory of Decision under Uncertainty

Author: Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521741231
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 230
View: 4023

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This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Ignorance and Uncertainty

Author: Olivier Compte,Andrew Postlewaite
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9781108422024
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 320
View: 767

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Born of a belief that economic insights should not require much mathematical sophistication, this book proposes novel and parsimonious methods to incorporate ignorance and uncertainty into economic modeling, without complex mathematics. Economics has made great strides over the past several decades in modeling agents' decisions when they are incompletely informed, but many economists believe that there are aspects of these models that are less than satisfactory. Among the concerns are that ignorance is not captured well in most models, that agents' presumed cognitive ability is implausible, and that derived optimal behavior is sometimes driven by the fine details of the model rather than the underlying economics. Compte and Postlewaite lay out a tractable way to address these concerns, and to incorporate plausible limitations on agents' sophistication. A central aspect of the proposed methodology is to restrict the strategies assumed available to agents.

Notes On The Theory Of Choice

Author: David Kreps
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429978243
Category: Social Science
Page: 228
View: 6360

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In this book, Professor Kreps presents a first course on the basic models of choice theory that underlie much of economic theory. This course, taught for several years at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, gives the student an introduction to the axiomatic method of economic analysis, without placing too heavy a demand on mathematical sophistication.The course begins with the basics of choice and revealed preference theory and then discusses numerical representations of ordinal preference. Models with uncertainty come next: First is von Neumann?Morgenstern utility, and then choice under uncertainty with subjective uncertainty, using the formulation of Anscombe and Aumann, and then sketching the development of Savage's classic theory. Finally, the course delves into a number of special topics, including de Finetti's theorem, modeling choice on a part of a larger problem, dynamic choice, and the empirical evidence against the classic models.

Making Better Decisions

Decision Theory in Practice
Author: Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1444336517
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 232
View: 1446

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Making Better Decisions introduces readers to some of the principal aspects of decision theory, and examines how these might lead us to make better decisions. • Introduces readers to key aspects of decision theory and examines how they might help us make better decisions • Presentation of material encourages readers to imagine a situation and make a decision or a judgment • Offers a broad coverage of the subject including major insights from several sub-disciplines: microeconomic theory, decision theory, game theory, social choice, statistics, psychology, and philosophy • Explains these insights informally in a language that has minimal mathematical notation or jargon, even when describing and interpreting mathematical theorems • Critically assesses the theory presented within the text, as well as some of its critiques • Includes a web resource for teachers and students

Analogies and Theories

Formal Models of Reasoning
Author: Itzhak Gilboa,Larry Samuelson,David Schmeidler
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191057894
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 160
View: 7467

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The book describes formal models of reasoning that are aimed at capturing the way that economic agents, and decision makers in general think about their environment and make predictions based on their past experience. The focus is on analogies (case-based reasoning) and general theories (rule-based reasoning), and on the interaction between them, as well as between them and Bayesian reasoning. A unified approach allows one to study the dynamics of inductive reasoning in terms of the mode of reasoning that is used to generate predictions.

Decision making under uncertainty

models and choices
Author: Charles A. Holloway
Publisher: Prentice Hall
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 522
View: 9245

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Introduction and basic concepts; Models and probability; Choices and preferences; Preference assessment procedures; Behavioral assumptions and limitations of decision analysis; Risk sharing and incentives; Choices with multiple attributes.

A Theory of Case-Based Decisions

Author: Itzhak Gilboa,David Schmeidler
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521003117
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 199
View: 6597

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This work, a paradigm for modelling decision-making under uncertainty, describes the general theory and its relationship to planning, repeated choice problems, inductive inference, and learning; and highlights its mathematical and philosophical foundations.

Frontiers of Research in Economic Theory

The Nancy L. Schwartz Memorial Lectures, 1983-1997
Author: J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521635387
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 274
View: 2186

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'Leading economists presenting fundamentally important issues in economic theory' is the theme of the Nancy Schwartz lectures series held annually at the J. L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management of Northwestern University. Reporting on lectures delivered in the years 1983 through 1997, this collection of essays discusses economic behavior at the individual and group level and the implications to the performance of economic systems. Using non-technical language, the speakers present theoretical, experimental, and empirical analysis of decision making under uncertainty and under full and bounded rationality, the influence of economic incentives and habits, and the effects of learning and evolution on dynamic choice. Perfect competition, economic development, social insurance and social mobility, and negotiation and economic survival, are major economic subjects analyzed through our understanding of economic behavior.

Repeated Games

Author: Jean-François Mertens,Sylvain Sorin,Shmuel Zamir
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 110703020X
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 598
View: 4367

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This landmark work significantly advances the literature on game theory with a masterful conceptual presentation of the CORE working papers published in 1994.

The Malliavin Calculus

Author: Denis R. Bell
Publisher: Courier Corporation
ISBN: 0486152057
Category: Mathematics
Page: 128
View: 7149

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This introductory text presents detailed accounts of the different forms of the theory developed by Stroock and Bismut, discussions of the relationship between these two approaches, and a variety of applications. 1987 edition.

Case-based Predictions

An Axiomatic Approach to Prediction, Classification and Statistical Learning
Author: Itzhak Gilboa,David Schmeidler
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated
ISBN: 9789814366175
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 309
View: 5071

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The book presents an axiomatic approach to the problems of prediction, classification, and statistical learning. Using methodologies from axiomatic decision theory, and, in particular, the authors' case-based decision theory, the present studies attempt to ask what inductive conclusions can be derived from existing databases. It is shown that simple consistency rules lead to similarity-weighted aggregation, akin to kernel-based methods. It is suggested that the similarity function be estimated from the data. The incorporation of rule-based reasoning is discussed.

The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information

Author: Sushil Bikhchandani,Jack Hirshleifer,John G. Riley
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107433762
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 536
View: 7489

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There has been explosive progress in the economic theory of uncertainty and information in the past few decades. This subject is now taught not only in departments of economics but also in professional schools and programs oriented toward business, government and administration, and public policy. This book attempts to unify the subject matter in a simple, accessible manner. Part I of the book focuses on the economics of uncertainty; Part II examines the economics of information. This revised and updated second edition places a greater focus on game theory. New topics include posted-price markets, mechanism design, common-value auctions, and the one-shot deviation principle for repeated games.


Author: Lars Peter Hansen,Thomas J. Sargent
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400829380
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 464
View: 2162

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The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.

Granular Computing and Intelligent Systems

Design with Information Granules of Higher Order and Higher Type
Author: Witold Pedrycz,Shyi-Ming Chen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783642198205
Category: Computers
Page: 308
View: 3194

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Information granules are fundamental conceptual entities facilitating perception of complex phenomena and contributing to the enhancement of human centricity in intelligent systems. The formal frameworks of information granules and information granulation comprise fuzzy sets, interval analysis, probability, rough sets, and shadowed sets, to name only a few representatives. Among current developments of Granular Computing, interesting options concern information granules of higher order and of higher type. The higher order information granularity is concerned with an effective formation of information granules over the space being originally constructed by information granules of lower order. This construct is directly associated with the concept of hierarchy of systems composed of successive processing layers characterized by the increasing levels of abstraction. This idea of layered, hierarchical realization of models of complex systems has gained a significant level of visibility in fuzzy modeling with the well-established concept of hierarchical fuzzy models where one strives to achieve a sound tradeoff between accuracy and a level of detail captured by the model and its level of interpretability. Higher type information granules emerge when the information granules themselves cannot be fully characterized in a purely numerical fashion but instead it becomes convenient to exploit their realization in the form of other types of information granules such as type-2 fuzzy sets, interval-valued fuzzy sets, or probabilistic fuzzy sets. Higher order and higher type of information granules constitute the focus of the studies on Granular Computing presented in this study. The book elaborates on sound methodologies of Granular Computing, algorithmic pursuits and an array of diverse applications and case studies in environmental studies, option price forecasting, and power engineering.

Interdisciplinary Applications of Agent-Based Social Simulation and Modeling

Author: Adamatti, Diana Francisca
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1466659556
Category: Computers
Page: 376
View: 4346

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Social simulation can be a difficult discipline to encompass fully. There are many methods, models, directions, and theories that can be discussed and applied to various social sciences. Anthropology, sociology, political science, economy, government, and management can all benefit from social simulation. Interdisciplinary Applications of Agent-Based Social Simulation and Modeling aims to bring a different perspective to this interdisciplinary topic. This book presents current discussions and new insights on social simulation as a whole, focusing on its dangers, pitfalls, deceits, and challenges. This book is an essential reference for researchers in this field, professionals using social simulation, and even students studying this discipline.

Game Theory: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice

Breakthroughs in Research and Practice
Author: Management Association, Information Resources
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1522525955
Category: Mathematics
Page: 505
View: 1749

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Developments in the use of game theory have impacted multiple fields and created opportunities for new applications. With the ubiquity of these developments, there is an increase in the overall utilization of this approach. Game Theory: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice contains a compendium of the latest academic material on the usage, strategies, and applications for implementing game theory across a variety of industries and fields. Including innovative studies on economics, military strategy, and political science, this multi-volume book is an ideal source for professionals, practitioners, graduate students, academics, and researchers interested in the applications of game theory.

Society in the Self

A Theory of Identity in Democracy
Author: Hubert J. M. Hermans
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190687797
Category: Political Science
Page: 456
View: 3308

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Instead of considering society as a social environment, Society in the Self begins from the assumption that society works in the deepest regions of self and identity, as expressed in phenomena like self-sabotage, self-radicalization, self-cure, self-government, self-nationalization, and self-internationalization. This leads to the central thesis that a democratic society can only function properly if it is populated by participants with a democratically organized self. In this book, an integrative model is presented that is inspired by three versions of democracy: cosmopolitan, deliberative, and agonistic democracy, with the latter focusing on the role of social power and emotions. Drawing on these democratic views, three levels of inclusiveness are distinguished in the self: personal (I as an individual), social (I as a member of a group), and global (I as a human being). A democratic self requires the flexibility of moving up and down across these levels of inclusiveness and has to find its way in fields of tension between the self and the other, and between dialogue and social power. As author Hubert Hermans explains, this theory has far reaching consequences for such divergent topics as leadership in the self, cultural diversity in the self, the relationship between reason and emotion, self-empathy, cooperation and competition between self-parts, and the role of social power in prejudice, enemy image construction, and scapegoating. The central message of this book is reflected in Mahatma Gandhi's dictum: "Be the change you want to see in the world."