The End of the Asian Century

War, Stagnation, and the Risks to the World's Most Dynamic Region
Author: Michael R. Auslin
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300212224
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 304
View: 6170

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An urgently needed "risk map" of the many dangers that could derail Asia's growth and stability Since Marco Polo, the West has waited for the "Asian Century." Today, the world believes that Century has arrived. Yet from China's slumping economy to war clouds over the South China Sea and from environmental devastation to demographic crisis, Asia's future is increasingly uncertain. Historian and geopolitical expert Michael Auslin argues that far from being a cohesive powerhouse, Asia is a fractured region threatened by stagnation and instability. Here, he provides a comprehensive account of the economic, military, political, and demographic risks that bedevil half of our world, arguing that Asia, working with the United States, has a unique opportunity to avert catastrophe - but only if it acts boldly. Bringing together firsthand observations and decades of research, Auslin's provocative reassessment of Asia's future will be a must-read for industry and investors, as well as politicians and scholars, for years to come.

The End of the Asian Century

War, Stagnation, and the Risks to the World's Most Dynamic Region
Author: Michael R. Auslin
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 030022446X
Category: History
Page: 256
View: 4936

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An urgently needed “risk map” of the many dangers that could derail Asia’s growth and stability Since Marco Polo, the West has waited for the “Asian Century.” Today, the world believes that Century has arrived. Yet from China’s slumping economy to war clouds over the South China Sea and from environmental devastation to demographic crisis, Asia’s future is increasingly uncertain. Historian and geopolitical expert Michael Auslin argues that far from being a cohesive powerhouse, Asia is a fractured region threatened by stagnation and instability. Here, he provides a comprehensive account of the economic, military, political, and demographic risks that bedevil half of our world, arguing that Asia, working with the United States, has a unique opportunity to avert catastrophe – but only if it acts boldly. Bringing together firsthand observations and decades of research, Auslin’s provocative reassessment of Asia’s future will be a must-read for industry and investors, as well as politicians and scholars, for years to come.

The End of the Asian Century

War, Stagnation, and the Risks to the World's Most Dynamic Region
Author: Michael R. Auslin
Publisher: N.A
ISBN: 9780300239980
Category: Political Science
Page: 304
View: 2690

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An urgently needed "risk map" of the many dangers that could derail Asia's growth and stability Since Marco Polo, the West has waited for the "Asian Century." Today, the world believes that Century has arrived. Yet from China's slumping economy to war clouds over the South China Sea and from environmental devastation to demographic crisis, Asia's future is increasingly uncertain. Historian and geopolitical expert Michael Auslin argues that far from being a cohesive powerhouse, Asia is a fractured region threatened by stagnation and instability. Here, he provides a comprehensive account of the economic, military, political, and demographic risks that bedevil half of our world, arguing that Asia, working with the United States, has a unique opportunity to avert catastrophe - but only if it acts boldly. Bringing together firsthand observations and decades of research, Auslin's provocative reassessment of Asia's future will be a must‑read for industry and investors, as well as politicians and scholars, for years to come.

China's Use of Military Force

Beyond the Great Wall and the Long March
Author: Andrew Scobell
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521525855
Category: History
Page: 299
View: 8447

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This 2003 book examines China's militarism, concluding that today's leaders may use force more readily than their predecessors.

All Measures Short of War

The Contest for the Twenty-First Century and the Future of American Power
Author: Thomas Wright
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 030022818X
Category: Political Science
Page: 288
View: 6063

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A groundbreaking look at the future of great power competition in an age of globalization and what the United States can do in response The two decades after the Cold War saw unprecedented cooperation between the major powers as the world converged on a model of liberal international order. Now, great power competition is back and the liberal order is in jeopardy. Russia and China are increasingly revisionist in their regions. The Middle East appears to be unraveling. And many Americans question why the United States ought to lead. What will great power competition look like in the decades ahead? Will the liberal world order survive? What impact will geopolitics have on globalization? And, what strategy should the United States pursue to succeed in an increasingly competitive world? In this book Thomas Wright explains how major powers will compete fiercely even as they try to avoid war with each other. Wright outlines a new American strategy—Responsible Competition—to navigate these challenges and strengthen the liberal order.

The End of Europe

Dictators, Demagogues, and the Coming Dark Age
Author: James Kirchick
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300227787
Category: History
Page: 256
View: 850

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Once the world’s bastion of liberal, democratic values, Europe is now having to confront demons it thought it had laid to rest. The old pathologies of anti-Semitism, populist nationalism, and territorial aggression are threatening to tear the European postwar consensus apart. In riveting dispatches from this unfolding tragedy, James Kirchick shows us the shallow disingenuousness of the leaders who pushed for “Brexit;” examines how a vast migrant wave is exacerbating tensions between Europeans and their Muslim minorities; explores the rising anti-Semitism that causes Jewish schools and synagogues in France and Germany to resemble armed bunkers; and describes how Russian imperial ambitions are destabilizing nations from Estonia to Ukraine. With President Trump now threatening to abandon America's traditional role as upholder of the liberal world order and guarantor of the continent's security, Europe may be alone in dealing with these unprecedented challenges. Based on extensive firsthand reporting, this book is a provocative, disturbing look at a continent in unexpected crisis.

Strong Societies and Weak States

State-society Relations and State Capabilities in the Third World
Author: Joel S. Migdal
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 9780691010731
Category: Political Science
Page: 296
View: 7245

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Why do many Asian, African, and Latin American states have such difficulty in directing the behavior of their populations--in spite of the resources at their disposal? And why do a small number of other states succeed in such control? What effect do failing laws and social policies have on the state itself? In answering these questions, Joel Migdal takes a new look at the role of the state in the third world. Strong Societies and Weak States offers a fresh approach to the study of state-society relations and to the possibilities for economic and political reforms in the third world. In Asia, Africa, and Latin America, state institutions have established a permanent presence among the populations of even the most remote villages. A close look at the performance of these agencies, however, reveals that often they operate on principles radically different from those conceived by their founders and creators in the capital city. Migdal proposes an answer to this paradox: a model of state-society relations that highlights the state's struggle with other social organizations and a theory that explains the differing abilities of states to predominate in those struggles.

The Hidden Wealth of Nations


Author: David Halpern
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0745656277
Category: Political Science
Page: 320
View: 3697

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Richer nations are happier, yet economic growth doesn't increase happiness. This paradox is explained by the Hidden Wealth of Nations - the extent to which citizens get along with other independently drives both economic growth and well-being. Much of this hidden wealth is expressed in everyday ways, such as our common values, the way we look after our children and elderly, or whether we trust and help strangers. It is a hidden dimension of inequality, and helps to explain why governments have found it so hard to reduce gaps in society. There are also deep cracks in this hidden wealth, in the form of our rising fears of crime, immigration and terror. Using a rich variety of international comparisons and new analysis, the book explores what is happening in contemporary societies from value change to the changing role of governments, and offers suggestions about what policymakers and citizens can do about it.

Breaking the Conflict Trap

Civil War and Development Policy
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821386417
Category: Social Science
Page: 240
View: 7949

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Civil war conflict is a core development issue. The existence of civil war can dramatically slow a country's development process, especially in low-income countries which are more vulnerable to civil war conflict. Conversely, development can impede civil war. When development succeeds, countries become safer when development fails, they experience a greater risk of being caught in a conflict trap. Ultimately, civil war is a failure of development. 'Breaking the Conflict Trap' identifies the dire consequences that civil war has on the development process and offers three main findings. First, civil war has adverse ripple effects that are often not taken into account by those who determine whether wars start or end. Second, some countries are more likely than others to experience civil war conflict and thus, the risks of civil war differ considerably according to a country's characteristics including its economic stability. Finally, Breaking the Conflict Trap explores viable international measures that can be taken to reduce the global incidence of civil war and proposes a practical agenda for action. This book should serve as a wake up call to anyone in the international community who still thinks that development and conflict are distinct issues.

The Dawn of Eurasia

On the Trail of the New World Order
Author: Bruno Maçães
Publisher: Penguin UK
ISBN: 0241309263
Category: Political Science
Page: 320
View: 5302

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In this original and timely book, Bruno Maçães argues that the best word for the emerging global order is 'Eurasian', and shows why we need to begin thinking on a super-continental scale. While China and Russia have been quicker to recognise the increasing strategic significance of Eurasia, even Europeans are realizing that their political project is intimately linked to the rest of the supercontinent - and as Maçães shows, they will be stronger for it. Weaving together history, diplomacy and vivid reports from his six-month overland journey across Eurasia from Baku to Samarkand, Vladivostock to Beijing, Maçães provides a fascinating portrait of this shifting geopolitical landscape. As he demonstrates, we can already see the coming Eurasianism in China's bold infrastructure project reopening the historic Silk Road, in the success of cities like Hong Kong and Singapore, in Turkey's increasing global role and in the fact that, revealingly, the United States is redefining its place as between Europe and Asia. An insightful and clarifying book for our turbulent times, The Dawn of Eurasia argues that the artificial separation of the world's largest island cannot hold, and the sooner we realise it, the better.

The South China Sea

The Struggle for Power in Asia
Author: Bill Hayton
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300189540
Category: History
Page: 320
View: 9568

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China’s rise has upset the global balance of power, and the first place to feel the strain is Beijing’s back yard: the South China Sea. For decades tensions have smoldered in the region, but today the threat of a direct confrontation among superpowers grows ever more likely. This important book is the first to make clear sense of the South Sea disputes. Bill Hayton, a journalist with extensive experience in the region, examines the high stakes involved for rival nations that include Vietnam, India, Taiwan, the Philippines, and China, as well as the United States, Russia, and others. Hayton also lays out the daunting obstacles that stand in the way of peaceful resolution. Through lively stories of individuals who have shaped current conflicts—businessmen, scientists, shippers, archaeologists, soldiers, diplomats, and more—Hayton makes understandable the complex history and contemporary reality of the South China Sea. He underscores its crucial importance as the passageway for half the world’s merchant shipping and one-third of its oil and gas. Whoever controls these waters controls the access between Europe, the Middle East, South Asia, and the Pacific. The author critiques various claims and positions (that China has historic claim to the Sea, for example), overturns conventional wisdoms (such as America’s overblown fears of China’s nationalism and military resurgence), and outlines what the future may hold for this clamorous region of international rivalry.

Negotiating with Imperialism

The Unequal Treaties and the Culture of Japanese Diplomacy
Author: Michael R. Auslin
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 9780674020313
Category: History
Page: 276
View: 7269

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Japan's modern international history began in 1858 with the signing of the "unequal" commercial treaty with the United States. Over the next fifteen years, Japanese diplomacy was reshaped to respond to the Western imperialist challenge. "Negotiating with Imperialism" is the first book to explain the emergence of modern Japan through this early period of treaty relations. Michael Auslin dispels the myth that the Tokugawa "bakufu" was diplomatically incompetent. Refusing to surrender to the West's power, "bakufu" diplomats employed negotiation as a weapon to defend Japan's interests. Tracing various visions of Japan's international identity, Auslin examines the evolution of the culture of Japanese diplomacy. Further, he demonstrates the limits of nineteenth-century imperialist power by examining the responses of British, French, and American diplomats. After replacing the Tokugawa in 1868, Meiji leaders initially utilized bakufu tactics. However, their 1872 failure to revise the treaties led them to focus on domestic reform as a way of maintaining independence and gaining equality with the West. In a compelling analysis of the interplay among assassinations, Western bombardment of Japanese cities, fertile cultural exchange, and intellectual discovery, Auslin offers a persuasive reading of the birth of modern Japan and its struggle to determine its future relations with the world.

Beyond Disruption

Technology's Challenge to Governance
Author: George Shultz,Jim Hoagland,James Timbie
Publisher: Hoover Press
ISBN: 081792146X
Category: Political Science
Page: 312
View: 3329

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In Beyond Disruption: Technology's Challenge to Governance, George P. Shultz, Jim Hoagland, and James Timbie present views from some of the country's top experts in the sciences, humanities, and military that scrutinize the rise of post-millennium technologies in today's global society. They contemplate both the benefits and peril carried by the unprecedented speed of these innovations—from genetic editing, which enables us new ways to control infectious diseases, to social media, whose ubiquitous global connections threaten the function of democracies across the world. Some techniques, like the advent of machine learning, have enabled engineers to create systems that will make us more productive. For example, self-driving vehicles promise to make trucking safer, faster, and cheaper. However, using big data and artificial intelligence to automate complex tasks also ends up threatening to disrupt both routine professions like taxi driving and cognitive work by accountants, radiologists, lawyers, and even computer programmers themselves.

Deadly Impasse


Author: Sumit Ganguly
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521763614
Category: History
Page: 192
View: 304

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Evaluating state relations between 1999-2009, Deadly Impasse seeks to explore what ails the Indo-Pakistani relationship and perpetuates the enduring rivalry.

Beyond Crimea

The New Russian Empire
Author: Agnia Grigas
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300220766
Category: Political Science
Page: 352
View: 9089

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How will Russia redraw post-Soviet borders? In the wake of recent Russian expansionism, political risk expert Agnia Grigas illustrates how—for more than two decades—Moscow has consistently used its compatriots in bordering nations for its territorial ambitions. Demonstrating how this policy has been implemented in Ukraine and Georgia, Grigas provides cutting-edge analysis of the nature of Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy and compatriot protection to warn that Moldova, Kazakhstan, the Baltic States, and others are also at risk.

Understanding Terrorism and Political Violence

The Life Cycle of Birth, Growth, Transformation, and Demise
Author: Dipak K. Gupta
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135982821
Category: Political Science
Page: 304
View: 775

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This book explains the lifecycle of terrorist organizations from an innovative theoretical perspective, combining economics with social psychology. It provides a new approach to understanding human behaviour in organized society, and then uses this to analyze the forces shaping the lifecycle of violent political movements. Economic and rational-choice theorists assume that human beings are motivated only by self-utility, yet terrorism is ultimately an altruistic act in the eyes of its participants. This book highlights the importance of the desire to belong to a group as a motivating factor, and argues that all of us face an eternal trade-off between selfishness and community concern. This hypothesis is explored through four key groups; the IRA in Northern Ireland, Al Qaeda, Hamas, and the Naxalites in India. Through this, the book analyzes the birth, growth, transformation and demise of violent political movements, and ends with an analysis of the conditions which determine the outcome of the war against terrorism. Understanding Terrorism and Political Violence will be essential reading for advanced students of terrorism studies and political science, and of great interest to students of social psychology and sociology.

China's Future


Author: David Shambaugh
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1509507175
Category: Political Science
Page: 144
View: 2333

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China's future is arguably the most consequential question in global affairs. Having enjoyed unprecedented levels of growth, China is at a critical juncture in the development of its economy, society, polity, national security, and international relations. The direction the nation takes at this turning point will determine whether it stalls or continues to develop and prosper. Will China be successful in implementing a new wave of transformational reforms that could last decades and make it the world's leading superpower? Or will its leaders shy away from the drastic changes required because the regime's power is at risk? If so, will that lead to prolonged stagnation or even regime collapse? Might China move down a more liberal or even democratic path? Or will China instead emerge as a hard, authoritarian and aggressive superstate? In this new book, David Shambaugh argues that these potential pathways are all possibilities - but they depend on key decisions yet to be made by China's leaders, different pressures from within Chinese society, as well as actions taken by other nations. Assessing these scenarios and their implications, he offers a thoughtful and clear study of China's future for all those seeking to understand the country's likely trajectory over the coming decade and beyond.

Treacherous Alliance

The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the United States
Author: Trita Parsi
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 9780300120578
Category: Political Science
Page: 361
View: 9954

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U.S. foreign policy expert Trita Parsi untangles the complex and often duplicitous relations among Israel, Iran, and the United States.

Japanese Girl at the Siege of Changchun

How I Survived ChinaÕs Wartime Atrocity
Author: Homare Endo
Publisher: Stone Bridge Press
ISBN: 1611729254
Category: Biography & Autobiography
Page: 304
View: 5506

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150,000 innocents died in Changchun at the end of WW2 when Mao's Revolutionary Army laid siege. Japanese girl Homare Endo, then age 7, was traumatized but survived to devote her life to telling the world of the atrocity China now denies. This gripping, firsthand account is tough reading, full of both brutal descriptions and dispassionate commentary on politics and humanity.

Japan Restored

How Japan Can Reinvent Itself and Why This Is Important for America and the World
Author: Clyde Prestowitz
Publisher: Tuttle Publishing
ISBN: 1462915329
Category: Political Science
Page: 288
View: 1317

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How Japan Can Reinvent Itself and Why This Is Important for America and the World. In 1979, the book Japan as Number One: Lessons for America by Harvard University professor Ezra Vogel caused a sensation in the United States by pointing out that Japan was surpassing America as world economic leader; the book remains to this day the all-time bestseller in Japan of non-fiction by a Western author. The book was timely: Japan's subsequent "bubble era" of the 1980s saw the country booming. But since the economic bubble burst at the start of the 1990s, Japan has been in decline. Japan Restored by Clyde Prestowitz, taking up Vogel's baton, is written as a vision of Japan in the year 2050, when the country's economic recovery has made it a world leader in every area of human endeavor. Prestowitz looks back to the present year as such a low point for Japan that a special reform commission was set up that helped the country regain its former position as a leader in technology, in business, and geopolitically. Looking at education, innovation, the role of women, corporate organization, energy, infrastructure, domestic government, and international alliances Prestowitz draws up a fascinating and controversial blueprint for the future success of Japan. As the eyes of the world turn towards Japan in the run-up to the 2020 Olympics, Japan Restored is as timely as the 1979 Vogel book that inspired it.