System Dynamics Modeling with R


Author: Jim Duggan
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319340433
Category: Computers
Page: 176
View: 937

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This new interdisciplinary work presents system dynamics as a powerful approach to enable analysts build simulation models of social systems, with a view toward enhancing decision making. Grounded in the feedback perspective of complex systems, the book provides a practical introduction to system dynamics, and covers key concepts such as stocks, flows, and feedback. Societal challenges such as predicting the impact of an emerging infectious disease, estimating population growth, and assessing the capacity of health services to cope with demographic change can all benefit from the application of computer simulation. This text explains important building blocks of the system dynamics approach, including material delays, stock management heuristics, and how to model effects between different systemic elements. Models from epidemiology, health systems, and economics are presented to illuminate important ideas, and the R programming language is used to provide an open-source and interoperable way to build system dynamics models. System Dynamics Modeling with R also describes hands-on techniques that can enhance client confidence in system dynamic models, including model testing, model analysis, and calibration. Developed from the author’s course in system dynamics, this book is written for undergraduate and postgraduate students of management, operations research, computer science, and applied mathematics. Its focus is on the fundamental building blocks of system dynamics models, and its choice of R as a modeling language make it an ideal reference text for those wishing to integrate system dynamics modeling with related data analytic methods and techniques.

System Dynamics

Modelling and Simulation
Author: Bilash Kanti Bala,Fatimah Mohamed Arshad,Kusairi Mohd Noh
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9811020450
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 278
View: 5712

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This book covers the broad spectrum of system dynamics methodologies for the modelling and simulation of complex systems: systems thinking, causal diagrams, systems structure of stock and flow diagrams, parameter estimation and tests for confidence building in system dynamics models. It includes a comprehensive review of model validation and policy design and provides a practical presentation of system dynamics modelling. It also offers numerous worked-out examples and case studies in diverse fields using STELLA and VENSIM. The system dynamics methodologies presented here can be applied to nearly all areas of research and planning, and the simulations provided make the complicated issues more easily understandable. System Dynamics: Modelling and Simulation is an essential system dynamics and systems engineering textbook for undergraduate and graduate courses. It also offers an excellent reference guide for managers in industry and policy planners who wish to use modelling and simulation to manage complex systems more effectively, as well as researchers in the fields of modelling and simulation-based systems thinking.

Advanced Dynamic Modeling of Economic and Social Systems


Author: Araceli N. Proto,Massimo Squillante,Janusz Kacprzyk
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3642329039
Category: Computers
Page: 234
View: 1398

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In this volume recent advances in the use of modern quantitative models for the analysis of various problems related to the dynamics of social and economic systems are presented. The majority chapters describe tools and techniques of broadly perceived computational intelligence, notably fuzzy logic, evolutionary computation, neural networks and some non-standard probabilistic and statistical analyses. Due to the high complexity of the systems and problems considered, in many situations it is necessary to consider at the same time analytic, topological and statistical aspects and apply appropriate procedures and algorithms. This volume is a direct result of vivid discussions held during the Fifth International Workshop on Dynamics of Social and Economical Systems (DYSES) which was held at Benevento, Italy September 20-25, 2010, as well as a couple of post-workshop meetings and consultations.

Dynamic Social Network Modeling and Analysis

Workshop Summary and Papers
Author: Committee on Human Factors,Board on Human-Systems Integration,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309519160
Category: Technology & Engineering
Page: 367
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In the summer of 2002, the Office of Naval Research asked the Committee on Human Factors to hold a workshop on dynamic social network and analysis. The primary purpose of the workshop was to bring together scientists who represent a diversity of views and approaches to share their insights, commentary, and critiques on the developing body of social network analysis research and application. The secondary purpose was to provide sound models and applications for current problems of national importance, with a particular focus on national security. This workshop is one of several activities undertaken by the National Research Council that bears on the contributions of various scientific disciplines to understanding and defending against terrorism. The presentations were grouped in four sessions – Social Network Theory Perspectives, Dynamic Social Networks, Metrics and Models, and Networked Worlds – each of which concluded with a discussant-led roundtable discussion among the presenters and workshop attendees on the themes and issues raised in the session.

Agent-Based Modelling of Social Networks in Labour–Education Market System


Author: Alexander Tarvid
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319265393
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 92
View: 6011

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This book covers the modelling of human behaviour in the education and labour markets, which due to their interdependency are viewed as one system. Important factors influencing the decision-making of individuals and firms in this system are discussed. The role of social environment and networks is stressed. The approach of agent-based modelling is presented and compared with standard economic modelling and other simulation techniques in the context of modelling complex adaptive systems. Practical questions in building agent-based models of labour–education market system with social networks are discussed. These questions include modelling the structure of education system and agent behaviour there; modelling and calibrating the labour market without and with firms; generating the social network, defining its behaviour and calibrating it; and embedding the resulting system into a larger model.

Multilayer Networks

Structure and Function
Author: Ginestra Bianconi
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198753918
Category:
Page: 416
View: 823

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Multilayer networks' has become a central topic in Network Science. The book presents a comprehensive account of this emerging field. Multilayer networks are formed by several networks and include social networks, financial markets, multi-modal transportation systems, infrastructures, molecular networks and the brain.

Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction

4th International Conference, SBP 2011, College Park, MD, USA, March 29-31, 2011. Proceedings
Author: John Salerno,Shanchieh Jay Yang,Dana Nau,Sun-Ki Chai
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642196551
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 384
View: 4103

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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, held in College Park, MD, USA, March 29-31, 2011. The 48 papers and 3 keynotes presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 88 submissions. The papers cover a wide range of topics including social network analysis; modeling; machine learning and data mining; social behaviors; public health; cultural aspects; and effects and search.

Social Physics

How Social Networks Can Make Us Smarter
Author: Alex Pentland
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 1101625570
Category: Science
Page: 320
View: 784

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From one of the world’s leading data scientists, a landmark tour of the new science of idea flow, offering revolutionary insights into the mysteries of collective intelligence and social influence If the Big Data revolution has a presiding genius, it is MIT’s Alex “Sandy” Pentland. Over years of groundbreaking experiments, he has distilled remarkable discoveries significant enough to become the bedrock of a whole new scientific field: social physics. Humans have more in common with bees than we like to admit: We’re social creatures first and foremost. Our most important habits of action—and most basic notions of common sense—are wired into us through our coordination in social groups. Social physics is about idea flow, the way human social networks spread ideas and transform those ideas into behaviors. Thanks to the millions of digital bread crumbs people leave behind via smartphones, GPS devices, and the Internet, the amount of new information we have about human activity is truly profound. Until now, sociologists have depended on limited data sets and surveys that tell us how people say they think and behave, rather than what they actually do. As a result, we’ve been stuck with the same stale social structures—classes, markets—and a focus on individual actors, data snapshots, and steady states. Pentland shows that, in fact, humans respond much more powerfully to social incentives that involve rewarding others and strengthening the ties that bind than incentives that involve only their own economic self-interest. Pentland and his teams have found that they can study patterns of information exchange in a social network without any knowledge of the actual content of the information and predict with stunning accuracy how productive and effective that network is, whether it’s a business or an entire city. We can maximize a group’s collective intelligence to improve performance and use social incentives to create new organizations and guide them through disruptive change in a way that maximizes the good. At every level of interaction, from small groups to large cities, social networks can be tuned to increase exploration and engagement, thus vastly improving idea flow. Social Physics will change the way we think about how we learn and how our social groups work—and can be made to work better, at every level of society. Pentland leads readers to the edge of the most important revolution in the study of social behavior in a generation, an entirely new way to look at life itself. From the Trade Paperback edition.

System Dynamics Modelling

A PRACTICAL APPROACH
Author: R.G. Coyle
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780412617102
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 432
View: 2299

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With NATO's bombing campaign against Serbia now over, what strategic, long-range plans will the alliance employ to restore stability to the region? As the global economy continually changes in response to worldwide events, what investment strategies will firms implement to cope with changing markets? And how can major pharmaceutical companies solve the problem of having newly-developed products abandoned before they can even be launched on the market? This book is designed and written to give the applied statistician an insight into all these areas of investigation.

Statistical Analysis of Network Data with R


Author: Eric D. Kolaczyk,Gábor Csárdi
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1493909835
Category: Computers
Page: 207
View: 9517

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Networks have permeated everyday life through everyday realities like the Internet, social networks, and viral marketing. As such, network analysis is an important growth area in the quantitative sciences, with roots in social network analysis going back to the 1930s and graph theory going back centuries. Measurement and analysis are integral components of network research. As a result, statistical methods play a critical role in network analysis. This book is the first of its kind in network research. It can be used as a stand-alone resource in which multiple R packages are used to illustrate how to conduct a wide range of network analyses, from basic manipulation and visualization, to summary and characterization, to modeling of network data. The central package is igraph, which provides extensive capabilities for studying network graphs in R. This text builds on Eric D. Kolaczyk’s book Statistical Analysis of Network Data (Springer, 2009).

The R Book


Author: Michael J. Crawley
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118448960
Category: Mathematics
Page: 1080
View: 4483

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Hugely successful and popular text presenting an extensive and comprehensive guide for all R users The R language is recognized as one of the most powerful and flexible statistical software packages, enabling users to apply many statistical techniques that would be impossible without such software to help implement such large data sets. R has become an essential tool for understanding and carrying out research. This edition: Features full colour text and extensive graphics throughout. Introduces a clear structure with numbered section headings to help readers locate information more efficiently. Looks at the evolution of R over the past five years. Features a new chapter on Bayesian Analysis and Meta-Analysis. Presents a fully revised and updated bibliography and reference section. Is supported by an accompanying website allowing examples from the text to be run by the user. Praise for the first edition: ‘…if you are an R user or wannabe R user, this text is the one that should be on your shelf. The breadth of topics covered is unsurpassed when it comes to texts on data analysis in R.’ (The American Statistician, August 2008) ‘The High-level software language of R is setting standards in quantitative analysis. And now anybody can get to grips with it thanks to The R Book…’ (Professional Pensions, July 2007)

Simulating Social Complexity

A Handbook
Author: Bruce Edmonds,Ruth Meyer
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3540938133
Category: Computers
Page: 754
View: 6568

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Social systems are among the most complex known. This poses particular problems for those who wish to understand them. The complexity often makes analytic approaches infeasible and natural language approaches inadequate for relating intricate cause and effect. However, individual- and agent-based computational approaches hold out the possibility of new and deeper understanding of such systems. Simulating Social Complexity examines all aspects of using agent- or individual-based simulation. This approach represents systems as individual elements having each their own set of differing states and internal processes. The interactions between elements in the simulation represent interactions in the target systems. What makes these elements "social" is that they are usefully interpretable as interacting elements of an observed society. In this, the focus is on human society, but can be extended to include social animals or artificial agents where such work enhances our understanding of human society. The phenomena of interest then result (emerge) from the dynamics of the interaction of social actors in an essential way and are usually not easily simplifiable by, for example, considering only representative actors. The introduction of accessible agent-based modelling allows the representation of social complexity in a more natural and direct manner than previous techniques. In particular, it is no longer necessary to distort a model with the introduction of overly strong assumptions simply in order to obtain analytic tractability. This makes agent-based modelling relatively accessible to a range of scientists. The outcomes of such models can be displayed and animated in ways that also make them more interpretable by experts and stakeholders. This handbook is intended to help in the process of maturation of this new field. It brings together, through the collaborative effort of many leading researchers, summaries of the best thinking and practice in this area and constitutes a reference point for standards against which future methodological advances are judged. This book will help those entering into the field to avoid "reinventing the wheel" each time, but it will also help those already in the field by providing accessible overviews of current thought. The material is divided into four sections: Introductory, Methodology, Mechanisms, and Applications. Each chapter starts with a very brief section called ‘Why read this chapter?’ followed by an abstract, which summarizes the content of the chapter. Each chapter also ends with a section of ‘Further Reading’ briefly describing three to eight items that a newcomer might read next.

A Survey of Statistical Network Models


Author: Anna Goldenberg,Alice X. Zheng,Stephen E. Fienberg,Edoardo M. Airoldi
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601983204
Category: Computers
Page: 120
View: 728

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Networks are ubiquitous in science and have become a focal point for discussion in everyday life. Formal statistical models for the analysis of network data have emerged as a major topic of interest in diverse areas of study, and most of these involve a form of graphical representation. Probability models on graphs date back to 1959. Along with empirical studies in social psychology and sociology from the 1960s, these early works generated an active network community and a substantial literature in the 1970s. This effort moved into the statistical literature in the late 1970s and 1980s, and the past decade has seen a burgeoning network literature in statistical physics and computer science. The growth of the World Wide Web and the emergence of online networking communities such as Facebook, MySpace, and LinkedIn, and a host of more specialized professional network communities has intensified interest in the study of networks and network data. Our goal in this review is to provide the reader with an entry point to this burgeoning literature. We begin with an overview of the historical development of statistical network modeling and then we introduce a number of examples that have been studied in the network literature. Our subsequent discussion focuses on a number of prominent static and dynamic network models and their interconnections. We emphasize formal model descriptions, and pay special attention to the interpretation of parameters and their estimation. We end with a description of some open problems and challenges for machine learning and statistics.

Urban Dynamics and Simulation Models


Author: Denise Pumain,Romain Reuillon
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319464973
Category: Political Science
Page: 123
View: 4271

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This monograph presents urban simulation methods that help in better understanding urban dynamics. Over historical times, cities have progressively absorbed a larger part of human population and will concentrate three quarters of humankind before the end of the century. This “urban transition” that has totally transformed the way we inhabit the planet is globally understood in its socio-economic rationales but is less frequently questioned as a spatio-temporal process. However, the cities, because they are intrinsically linked in a game of competition for resources and development, self organize in “systems of cities” where their future becomes more and more interdependent. The high frequency and intensity of interactions between cities explain that urban systems all over the world exhibit large similarities in their hierarchical and functional structure and rather regular dynamics. They are complex systems whose emergence, structure and further evolution are widely governed by the multiple kinds of interaction that link the various actors and institutions investing in cities their efforts, capital, knowledge and intelligence. Simulation models that reconstruct this dynamics may help in better understanding it and exploring future plausible evolutions of urban systems. This would provide better insight about how societies can manage the ecological transition at local, regional and global scales. The author has developed a series of instruments that greatly improve the techniques of validation for such models of social sciences that can be submitted to many applications in a variety of geographical situations. Examples are given for several BRICS countries, Europe and United States. The target audience primarily comprises research experts in the field of urban dynamics, but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.

Time Series Analysis and Its Applications

With R Examples
Author: Robert H. Shumway,David S. Stoffer
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319524526
Category: Mathematics
Page: 562
View: 2375

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The fourth edition of this popular graduate textbook, like its predecessors, presents a balanced and comprehensive treatment of both time and frequency domain methods with accompanying theory. Numerous examples using nontrivial data illustrate solutions to problems such as discovering natural and anthropogenic climate change, evaluating pain perception experiments using functional magnetic resonance imaging, and monitoring a nuclear test ban treaty. The book is designed as a textbook for graduate level students in the physical, biological, and social sciences and as a graduate level text in statistics. Some parts may also serve as an undergraduate introductory course. Theory and methodology are separated to allow presentations on different levels. In addition to coverage of classical methods of time series regression, ARIMA models, spectral analysis and state-space models, the text includes modern developments including categorical time series analysis, multivariate spectral methods, long memory series, nonlinear models, resampling techniques, GARCH models, ARMAX models, stochastic volatility, wavelets, and Markov chain Monte Carlo integration methods. This edition includes R code for each numerical example in addition to Appendix R, which provides a reference for the data sets and R scripts used in the text in addition to a tutorial on basic R commands and R time series. An additional file is available on the book’s website for download, making all the data sets and scripts easy to load into R.

Working with Dynamic Crop Models

Methods, Tools and Examples for Agriculture and Environment
Author: Daniel Wallach,David Makowski,James W. Jones,Francois Brun
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0444594469
Category: Technology & Engineering
Page: 504
View: 1248

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This second edition of Working with Dynamic Crop Models is meant for self-learning by researchers or for use in graduate level courses devoted to methods for working with dynamic models in crop, agricultural, and related sciences. Each chapter focuses on a particular topic and includes an introduction, a detailed explanation of the available methods, applications of the methods to one or two simple models that are followed throughout the book, real-life examples of the methods from literature, and finally a section detailing implementation of the methods using the R programming language. The consistent use of R makes this book immediately and directly applicable to scientists seeking to develop models quickly and effectively, and the selected examples ensure broad appeal to scientists in various disciplines. New to this edition: 50% new content – 100% reviewed and updated Clearly explains practical application of the methods presented, including R language examples Presents real-life examples of core crop modeling methods, and ones that are translatable to dynamic system models in other fields

Dynamic Systems Biology Modeling and Simulation


Author: Joseph DiStefano III
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0124104932
Category: Science
Page: 884
View: 8538

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Dynamic Systems Biology Modeling and Simuation consolidates and unifies classical and contemporary multiscale methodologies for mathematical modeling and computer simulation of dynamic biological systems – from molecular/cellular, organ-system, on up to population levels. The book pedagogy is developed as a well-annotated, systematic tutorial – with clearly spelled-out and unified nomenclature – derived from the author’s own modeling efforts, publications and teaching over half a century. Ambiguities in some concepts and tools are clarified and others are rendered more accessible and practical. The latter include novel qualitative theory and methodologies for recognizing dynamical signatures in data using structural (multicompartmental and network) models and graph theory; and analyzing structural and measurement (data) models for quantification feasibility. The level is basic-to-intermediate, with much emphasis on biomodeling from real biodata, for use in real applications. Introductory coverage of core mathematical concepts such as linear and nonlinear differential and difference equations, Laplace transforms, linear algebra, probability, statistics and stochastics topics; PLUS ....... The pertinent biology, biochemistry, biophysics or pharmacology for modeling are provided, to support understanding the amalgam of “math modeling” with life sciences. Strong emphasis on quantifying as well as building and analyzing biomodels: includes methodology and computational tools for parameter identifiability and sensitivity analysis; parameter estimation from real data; model distinguishability and simplification; and practical bioexperiment design and optimization. Companion website provides solutions and program code for examples and exercises using Matlab, Simulink, VisSim, SimBiology, SAAMII, AMIGO, Copasi and SBML-coded models. A full set of PowerPoint slides are available from the author for teaching from his textbook. He uses them to teach a 10 week quarter upper division course at UCLA, which meets twice a week, so there are 20 lectures. They can easily be augmented or stretched for a 15 week semester course. Importantly, the slides are editable, so they can be readily adapted to a lecturer’s personal style and course content needs. The lectures are based on excerpts from 12 of the first 13 chapters of DSBMS. They are designed to highlight the key course material, as a study guide and structure for students following the full text content. The complete PowerPoint slide package (~25 MB) can be obtained by instructors (or prospective instructors) by emailing the author directly, at: [email protected]

Community Based System Dynamics


Author: Peter Hovmand
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461487633
Category: Psychology
Page: 104
View: 5145

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Community Based System Dynamics introduces researchers and practitioners to the design and application of participatory systems modeling with diverse communities. The book bridges community- based participatory research methods and rigorous computational modeling approaches to understanding communities as complex systems. It emphasizes the importance of community involvement both to understand the underlying system and to aid in implementation. Comprehensive in its scope, the volume includes topics that span the entire process of participatory systems modeling, from the initial engagement and conceptualization of community issues to model building, analysis, and project evaluation. Community Based System Dynamics is a highly valuable resource for anyone interested in helping to advance social justice using system dynamics, community involvement, and group model building, and helping to make communities a better place.

Sociophysics: An Introduction


Author: Parongama Sen,Bikas K. Chakrabarti
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191639451
Category: Science
Page: 320
View: 862

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This book discusses the study and analysis of the physical aspects of social systems and models, inspired by the analogy with familiar models of physical systems and possible applications of statistical physics tools. Unlike the traditional analysis of the physics of macroscopic many-body or condensed matter systems, which is now an established and mature subject, the upsurge in the physical analysis and modelling of social systems, which are clearly many-body dynamical systems, is a recent phenomenon. Though the major developments in sociophysics have taken place only recently, the earliest attempts of proposing "Social Physics" as a discipline are more than one and a half centuries old. Various developments in the mainstream physics of condensed matter systems have inspired and induced the recent growth of sociophysical analysis and models. In spite of the tremendous efforts of many scientists in recent years, the subject is still in its infancy and major challenges are yet to be taken up. An introduction to these challenges is the main motivation for this book.

A Course in Mathematical Modeling


Author: Douglas D. Mooney,Randall J. Swift
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780883857120
Category: Mathematics
Page: 431
View: 9461

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This book teaches elementary mathematical modeling.