Handbook of Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis


Author: Hank Prunckun
Publisher: Scarecrow Press
ISBN: 0810871912
Category: Political Science
Page: 248
View: 4437

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With the exponential growth in the intelligence field in the last few years, the profession has grown much larger and its mission more complex. Government and private sector security agencies have recruited intelligence analysts to process what has become a voluminous amount of raw information flowing into these agencies' data collection systems. Unfortunately, there is an unmet need for analysts who are able to process these data. For this reason there are a growing number of colleges and universities that offer intelligence training so that candidates for analyst positions can take-up their duties without protracted on-the-job instruction. Handbook of Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis offers students in such courses a way of gaining the analytic skills essential to undertake intelligence work. This book acquaints students and analysts with how intelligence fits into the larger research framework. It covers not only the essentials of applied research but also explains the function, structure, and operational methods specifically involved in intelligence work. It looks at how analysts work with classified information in a security conscious environment, as well as obtaining data via covert methods. Students are left with little doubt about what intelligence is and how it is developed using scientific methods of inquiry.

Cases in Intelligence Analysis

Structured Analytic Techniques in Action
Author: Sarah Miller Beebe,Randolph H. Pherson
Publisher: CQ Press
ISBN: 1483340147
Category: Political Science
Page: 400
View: 636

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In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises.

Intelligence Analysis

A Target-Centric Approach
Author: Robert M. Clark
Publisher: CQ Press
ISBN: 1506316794
Category: Political Science
Page: 448
View: 5568

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Robert M. Clark’s Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach demonstrates that a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis, while better meeting the needs of the customer. Thoroughly revised to reflect the changes in the constantly shifting landscape of intelligence, the Fifth Edition contains a new chapter that frames the nature of intelligence in 21st century conflict. The book also accounts for recent events such as the rise of ISIL and the conflict in Ukraine, and contains new examples throughout. Clark’s practical information and insider perspective create the perfect resource for students and practitioners alike.

Improving Intelligence Analysis

Bridging the Gap between Scholarship and Practice
Author: Stephen Marrin
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136680470
Category: Political Science
Page: 192
View: 7274

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This book on intelligence analysis written by intelligence expert Dr. Stephen Marrin argues that scholarship can play a valuable role in improving intelligence analysis. Improving intelligence analysis requires bridging the gap between scholarship and practice. Compared to the more established academic disciplines of political science and international relations, intelligence studies scholarship is generally quite relevant to practice. Yet a substantial gap exists nonetheless. Even though there are many intelligence analysts, very few of them are aware of the various writings on intelligence analysis which could help them improve their own processes and products. If the gap between scholarship and practice were to be bridged, practitioners would be able to access and exploit the literature in order to acquire new ways to think about, frame, conceptualize, and improve the analytic process and the resulting product. This volume contributes to the broader discussion regarding mechanisms and methods for improving intelligence analysis processes and products. It synthesizes these articles into a coherent whole, linking them together through common themes, and emphasizes the broader vision of intelligence analysis in the introduction and conclusion chapters. The book will be of great interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, US national security, US foreign policy, security studies and political science in general,as well as professional intelligence analysts and managers.

Challenges in Intelligence Analysis

Lessons from 1300 BCE to the Present
Author: Timothy Walton
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139493116
Category: Political Science
Page: N.A
View: 8223

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In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis. After a brief introduction to the main concepts of analysis, he provides more than forty historical and contemporary examples that demonstrate what has, and what has not, been effective when grappling with difficult problems. The examples cover a wide span of time, going back 3,000 years. They are also global in scope and deal with a variety of political, military, economic, and social issues. Walton emphasizes the importance of critical and creative thinking and how such thinking can be enhanced. His 2010 book provides a detailed and balanced idea of intelligence work and will be of particular interest to students who are contemplating a career in intelligence analysis.

Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis


Author: David T. Moore
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437934927
Category:
Page: 134
View: 1161

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Contents: (1) How Do People Reason?; (2) What is Critical Thinking?; (3) What Can Be Learned from the Past?: Thinking Critically about Cuba: Deploying the Missiles; Assessing the Implications; Between Dogmatism and Refutation; Lacking: Disconfirmation; The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis; Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context; Ten Years Later, They Meet Again; Judgment; (4) How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking?; (5) How Can Intelligence Analysts be Taught to Think Critically?; (6) How Does Critical Thinking Transform?; (7) What Other Points of View Exist?; (8) What Does the Future Hold?; (9) NSA¿s Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus. Charts and tables.

Intelligence Analysis

Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
Author: National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309176980
Category: Social Science
Page: 352
View: 2639

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The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis


Author: Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Publisher: CQ Press
ISBN: 1483323021
Category: Political Science
Page: 384
View: 5315

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In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.

Intelligence Analysis and Assessment


Author: David Charters,Stuart Farson,Glenn P. Hastedt
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135212384
Category: History
Page: 240
View: 548

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These essays cover: assessment systems now in place in Britain, the USA, Germany and Australia; the bureaucratic dynamics of analysis and assessment; the changing ground in intelligence; and the impact of new technologies and modes of communication on intelligence gathering and analysis.

Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis


Author: Gregory F. Treverton,C. Bryan Gabbard
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833046012
Category: Political Science
Page: 74
View: 5399

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This report assesses intelligence analysis across the main U.S. intelligence agencies and makes a number of recommendations, some of which parallel initiatives that have begun in the wake of the December 2004 legislation, for instance, create a Deputy Director of National Intelligence as a focal point for analysis, establish a National Intelligence University, build a Long Term Analysis Unit at the National Intelligence Council, and form an Open Source Center for making more creative use of open-source materials.

Intelligence Analysis: How to Think in Complex Environments

How to Think in Complex Environments
Author: Wayne Michael Hall,Gary Citrenbaum
Publisher: ABC-CLIO
ISBN: 0313382662
Category: Political Science
Page: 440
View: 6368

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This book offers a vast conceptual and theoretical exploration of the ways intelligence analysis must change in order to succeed against today's most dangerous combatants and most complex irregular theatres of conflict. • Includes quotations from a wide range of acclaimed thinkers • Offers an extensive bibliography of works cited and resources for further reading • Presents a comprehensive index

Intelligence and Intelligence Analysis


Author: Patrick F. Walsh
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136718567
Category: Social Science
Page: 352
View: 6395

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This book tracks post 9/11 developments in national security and policing intelligence and their relevance to new emerging areas of intelligence practice such as: corrections, biosecurity, private industry and regulatory environments. Developments are explored thematically across three broad sections: applying intelligence understanding structures developing a discipline. Issues explored include: understanding intelligence models; the strategic management challenges of intelligence; intelligence capacity building; and the ethical dimensions of intelligence practice. Using case studies collected from wide-ranging interviews with leaders, managers and intelligence practitioners from a range of practice areas in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and US, the book indentifies examples of good practice across countries and agencies that may be relevant to other settings. Uniquely bringing together significant theoretical and practical developments in a sample of traditional and emerging areas of intelligence, this book provides readers with a more holistic and inter-disciplinary perspective on the evolving intelligence field across several different practice contexts. Intelligence and Intelligence Analysis will be relevant to a broad audience including intelligence practitioners and managers working across all fields of intelligence (national security, policing, private industry and emerging areas) as well as students taking courses in policing and intelligence analysis.

Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection


Author: Henry H. Willis
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833039741
Category: Political Science
Page: 71
View: 715

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The Department of Homeland Security is moving increasingly to risk analysis and risk-based resource allocation, a process that is designed to manage the greatest risks instead of attempting to protect everything. The authors show how a probabilistic terrorism model can be used to assess terrorist risk across cities and within specific cities, and to assist intelligence analysis.

The Logic of Intelligence Analysis

Why Hypothesis Testing Matters
Author: Karl Spielmann
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429891881
Category: Political Science
Page: 120
View: 6847

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This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis. By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modeling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual "live" intelligence issue. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners.

Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow

Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences
Author: National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309210941
Category: Social Science
Page: 116
View: 3485

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The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.

Critical thinking and intelligence analysis


Author: David T. Moore,Joint Military Intelligence College (U.S.)
Publisher: Createspace
ISBN: N.A
Category: Reference
Page: 134
View: 4173

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This National Defense Intelligence College publication defines critical thinking in the context of intelligence analysis, explains how it influences the entire intelligence process, explores how it toughens the art of intelligence analysis, suggests how it may be taught, and deduces how analysts can be persuaded to adopt this habit. "David Moore has added his powerful voice to those calling for America's intelligence analysts to be more self-conscious about their methods and more venturesome in applying more formal methods." - Gregory F. Treverton, Rand Corp. "...a valuable initiative on behalf of the Intelligence Community" - Francis J. Hughes, National Defense Intelligence College. About the author: David T. Moore is a career senior intelligence analyst and technical director at the National Security Agency where he is an advocate for, and mentor of best practices in intelligence analysis. He is an adjunct faculty member of the National Cryptologic School; has taught at the National Defense Intelligence College, Washington, DC; and at Trinity University, Washington, DC. Mr. Moore holds a B.A. in sociology from Washington and Lee University and a Master of Science of Strategic Intelligence from the National Defense Intelligence College.

Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals


Author: Godfrey Garner,Patrick McGlynn
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1351249339
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 315
View: 6819

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There are a limited number of intelligence analysis books available on the market. Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals is an introductory, accessible text for college level undergraduate and graduate level courses. While the principles outlined in the book largely follow military intelligence terminology and practice, concepts are presented to correlate with intelligence gathering and analysis performed in law enforcement, homeland security, and corporate and business security roles. Most of the existing texts on intelligence gathering and analysis focus on specific types of intelligence such as ‘target centric’ intelligence, and many of these, detail information from a position of prior knowledge. In other words, they are most valuable to the consumer who has a working-level knowledge of the subject. The book is general enough in nature that a lay student—interested in pursuing a career in intelligence, Homeland Security, or other related areas of law enforcement—will benefit from it. No prior knowledge of intelligence analysis, functions, or operations is assumed. Chapters illustrate methods and techniques that, over the years, have consistently demonstrate results, superior to those achieved with other means. Chapters describe such analytical methods that are most widely used in the intelligence community and serve as recognized standards and benchmarks in the practice of intelligence analysis. All techniques have been selected for inclusion for their specific application to homeland security, criminal investigations, and intelligence operations. Uses numerous hands-on activities—that can easily be modified by instructors to be more or less challenging depending on the course level—to reinforce concepts As current and active members of the intelligence community, the authors draw on their decades of experience in intelligence to offer real-world examples to illustrate concepts All methodologies reflect the latest trends in the intelligence communities assessment, analysis, and reporting processes with all presented being open source, non-classified information As such, the non-sensitive information presented is appropriate—and methods applicable—for use for education and training overseas and internationally Military-style collection and analysis methods are the primary ones presented, but all are directly correlated intelligence to current concepts, functions and practices within Homeland Security and the law communities Covers the counterterrorism environment where joint operations and investigative efforts combine military, private sector, and law enforcement action and information sharing The book will be a welcome addition to the body of literature available and a widely used reference for professionals and students alike.

Crime and Intelligence Analysis

An Integrated Real-Time Approach
Author: Glenn Grana,James Windell
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1498751733
Category: Law
Page: 403
View: 5378

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Crime and Intelligence Analysis: An Integrated Real-Time Approach covers everything crime analysts and tactical analysts need to know to be successful. Providing an overview of the criminal justice system as well as the more fundamental areas of crime analysis, the book will enable students and law enforcement personnel to better understand criminal behavior, learn the basics of conducting temporal analysis of crime patterns, use spatial analysis to better understand crime, apply research methods to crime analysis, and more successfully evaluate data and information to help predict criminal offending and solve criminal cases. Criminal justice and police academy students will learn how to be skilled and credible crime analysts who play a critical role in the daily operations of law enforcement.

America's Strategic Blunders

Intelligence Analysis and National Security Policy, 1936-1991
Author: Willard C. Matthias
Publisher: Penn State Press
ISBN: 0271039825
Category: Political Science
Page: 376
View: 5109

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This survey of more than fifty years of national security policy juxtaposes declassified U. S. national intelligence estimates with recently released Soviet documents disclosing the views of Soviet leaders and their Communist allies on the same events. Matthias shows that U. S. intelligence estimates were usually correct but that our political and military leaders generally ignored them&—with sometimes disastrous results. The book begins with a look back at the role of U. S. intelligence during World War II, from Pearl Harbor through the plot against Hitler and the D-day invasion to the &"unconditional surrender&" of Japan, and reveals how better use of the intelligence available could have saved many lives and shortened the war. The following chapters dealing with the Cold War disclose what information and advice U. S. intelligence analysts passed on to policy makers, and also what sometimes bitter policy debates occurred within the Communist camp, concerning Vietnam, the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban missile crisis, the turmoil in Eastern Europe, the Six-Day and Yom Kippur wars in the Middle East, and the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. In many ways, this is a story of missed opportunities the U. S. government had to conduct a more responsible foreign policy that could have avoided large losses of life and massive expenditures on arms buildups. While not exonerating the CIA for its own mistakes, Matthias casts new light on the contributions that objective intelligence analysis did make during the Cold War and speculates on what might have happened if that analysis and advice had been heeded.